PTA will enter a complex bottoming period
PTA prices have fallen sharply since mid February this year, with an adjustment range of nearly 30%, mainly based on three factors: first, the sharp decline in the price of cotton, which has a certain substitution effect with downstream polyester products; Second, the negative effect of the government's tightening policy on the overall commodity market appears; Third, PTA downstream terminal demand has been delayed. Entering the third quarter, the domestic supply pressure is still large in the second half of the year, and the terminal demand is not optimistic. Although the current PX naphtha cracking price gap has been low since Chinaplas 2012, the late PX price decline is limited, and the PTA cost support effect will not appear until the end of the third quarter, so it is inferred that PTA will enter a complex bottoming stageAccording to statistics, PTA manufacturers including Zhejiang Yisheng Petrochemical will have a new PTA capacity of 3.7 million tons/year in the last three months. The new production capacity of 3.7 million tons will basically be put into operation before September this year. Based on the operating rate of 90%, the monthly supply equivalent to each month will increase by about 270000 tons compared with the previous month. From this year to the beginning of next year, the polyester production capacity that is planned to be put into operation but has not yet been put into operation is about 3million tons, and about 0.865 tons of PTA are consumed per ton of polyester. Based on the operating rate of 80% polyester, the monthly consumption of new PTA is about 170000 tons. Without considering imports, the PTA oversupply situation will further intensify from the perspective of domestic supply alone. The third quarter is the traditional off-season for the demand of the textile industry. The terminal textile demand is sluggish, and the demand is sluggish, resulting in the repeated production and marketing situation of polyester
px prices have a limited decline, and PTA cost support effect will appear at the end of the quarter.
at present, PX manufacturers' devices are in good operation, most PX production devices are running close to full load, some manufacturers have also postponed maintenance plans, and PX supply is relatively sufficient. The market expects that the demand side will improve after the new PTA capacity of Yisheng Petrochemical is put into operation, but the raw materials of Yisheng Petrochemical have been prepared in advance, and the unit cannot operate at high load after the new capacity is opened, so the demand for PX is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term
the author believes that PX will really enter the upward channel until PTA devices are put into operation in September. The jaws holding samples are easy to wear and tear. Among the factors affecting its price trend at present, its own supply and demand fundamentals have reacted in this round of decline, and the future market will focus on the price trend of crude oil and naphtha. Crude oil is expected to oscillate between $85 - $110 in the third quarter, so judging from the current oil price and the price difference between PX and naphtha cracking in the third quarter, the future PX price decline is limited, and the PTA cost support effect will appear at the end of the third quarter
weak cotton prices drag down PTA futures prices
polyester prices have fluctuated with oil prices for many years. As a substitute for polyester products downstream of PTA, the price of cotton has stepped into the era of high prices, and the correlation between PTA and cotton that makes the actuator plug move quickly to the working position has gradually increased. Capital, market supply and demand and policies are the most critical factors affecting cotton prices. National macro-control, policy suppression and improvement of supply and demand fundamentals will restrict the rebound space of cotton prices in the second half of the year, and cotton prices will still be weak in the future
the price difference between futures and cash has changed, and the warehouse receipt pressure will reappear.
the profit space of polyester manufacturers is acceptable, and the current main contract price of futures is relatively discounted to the spot price. Therefore, as a PTA manufacturer, the willingness to register warehouse receipts is not strong, and as a polyester manufacturer to replenish inventory, it is obviously more profitable to receive futures warehouse receipts compared with the contract price and spot price. However, with the gradual appearance of PTA supply pressure in the future, the abundant supply of foam granulator in the spot market will gradually change the current situation of futures discount and reproduce the warehouse receipt pressure
pta has fallen by nearly 30% since this round of correction. With the release of supply pressure and the adjustment of cotton price, there is still some room for adjustment in the current price. In terms of operation, it is recommended to sell short in case of rebound
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