The hottest PTA spot market continued to be in dow

  • Detail

PTA spot market continues to be depressed, and prices are facing greater downward pressure

Abstract: oil prices continue to fall, and PTA prices that have lost cost support have returned to the process of reflecting their value in terms of supply and demand. In the recent year, the expansion rate of domestic PTA capacity is still much higher than that of polyester in the same period. In this context, PTA will continue to repeat with the change of oil price in September, but the overall trend will be downward, unless there is a serious supply interruption and domestic demand improves

Part I review of hot spots in August

I. macro economy

[August 31]: the global economy decelerated significantly. According to the data released by the organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD), the economic growth rate of developed countries in the second quarter hit the lowest level in nearly seven years. The overall GDP of the 30 member countries of the organization increased by 0.2% over the first quarter and 1.9% over the same period last year. Among them, the economic growth rate of the seven major industrial countries (G7) was the lowest, and its overall GDP increased by only 0.1% compared with the previous quarter

[August 30]: Japan saved the economy by 100 billion dollars. On the 29th, the Japanese government introduced a package of economic stimulus plans totaling 11.7 trillion yen (its size is within a specific range or the standard range, about 107billion US dollars) to cope with the inflationary pressure caused by the rising prices of energy and raw materials in the international market

[August 30]: the risk of stagflation in the US economy gradually subsided. Since the 27th, economic data released by the United States showed that the labor market, financial market and real estate market have improved. A stronger dollar seems to have regained control of the "baton" of the commodity market, which may further depress oil prices

[August 12]: in July, CPI rose 6.3% year-on-year, cities rose 6.1%, and clothing prices fell 1.4% year-on-year. Among them, clothing prices fell by 1.5%

[August 12]: China's trade surplus fell by 9.6% in the first July. Data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 11th showed that by the end of July, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports had reached US $148.21 billion, an increase of 26.4% over the same period in 2007. Among them, the export was 802.91 billion US dollars, an increase of 22.6%; Imports reached US $679.2 billion, an increase of 31.1%. The accumulated trade surplus was $123.72 billion, a decrease of 9.6% over the same period in 2007, with a net decrease of $13.1 billion

II. Industry trends

[August 29]: in the first half of 2008, the United States imported clothing from China declined. From January to June this year, the amount of clothing imported by the United States from China was $9.6 billion, a decline of 6.46%, and an increase of only 16% in the past three years. In June this year, the amount of clothing imported by the United States from China even declined by 8% compared with the same month in 2005. The export of China's quota restricted projects to the United States has declined sharply

[August 29]: according to the statistics of fiber organon in the United States, the global output of synthetic fiber (excluding polyolefin fiber and glass fiber) in 2007 was 38.0775 million tons, an increase of 8.3% over 2006. Compared with 2006, China's output in 2007 continued to increase, reaching 55.9% of the world's output from 51.7% in 2006, maintaining the first place in the world. The second is India, which increased from 6.2% in 2006 to 6.4%, Taiwan, 6.3%, the United States, 6.1%, and Europe, 4.2%

[August 22]: textile enterprises will take the second step to rescue the market, 2 Do not mix water or dirt in the fuel tank. Brand clothing may get tax concessions. After the textile and clothing export tax rebate callback of two percentage points on the 1st of this month, there was good news. A relevant person from the Ministry of industry and information technology recently revealed that the decision-making level recently intends to introduce relevant supporting policies to guide the construction of clothing brands, but the specific measures are still unknown

[August 1]: the export tax rebate rate will be raised from today, which will have a positive impact on the textile and clothing industry. Recently, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the notice on adjusting the export tax rebate rate of some commodities such as textiles and clothing (hereinafter referred to as the notice). The notice points out that from August 1, 2008, the export tax rebate rate of some textiles and clothing will be increased from 11% to 13%, and the export tax rebate rate of some bamboo products will be increased to 11%

III. PTA attention

[August 29]: ta809 contract opened this month at 9148 yuan/ton, closed at 8900 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 9500 yuan/ton, a minimum of 8672 yuan/ton, a monthly average of 9104 yuan/ton, a transaction of 1.711 million hands, and 89594 positions on the last trading day; Ta811 contract opened this month at 8650 yuan/ton, closed at 8348 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 8756 yuan/ton and a minimum of 8038 yuan/ton. The monthly average price was 8311 yuan/ton, with 1188000 transactions and 26120 positions on the last trading day

[August 29]: ta809 contract closed at 8900 yuan/ton, with a position of 89594 hands, ending August trading and entering the delivery period in September. Based on the position, the delivery of more than 200000 tons created a new record after the launch of PTA futures

[August 21]: in July, the import of PTAs was 481200 tons, with an average import price of about $1145/ton. From January to July, the cumulative import was 3.565 million tons. In July, the import of PX was 327000 tons, and the average import price was about 1613 dollars/ton. From January to July, the total import was 2138000 tons

[August 13]: China Xianglu restarted the 1.5 million ton PTA plant

Part II Review of PTA spot fundamentals in August

I. PTA plant dynamics

1. The 900000 ton PTA plant of Zhuhai BP phase II will be shut down for maintenance from July 21 and restarted in late August; The 600000 ton unit of phase I has been shut down since the end of June

2. After the shutdown and overhaul of Xianglu Petrochemical's 1.5 million ton PTA plant in June, it was announced on July 29 that it would be shut down and overhauled again from now on, and it was restarted on August 11. At present, about 80% of the work has been started

3. In June, three sets of 600000 ton PTA devices with flexible functions were shut down for maintenance in turn, which were restored in mid July. Now all of them are open and stable

4. A 650000 ton/year PTA production unit of Yisheng Petrochemical stopped for maintenance at the end of July and restarted around August 26

5. The 600000 ton/year PTA unit of Ningbo Mitsubishi Chemical was shut down for maintenance in late August, and it is planned to restart in early September

6. The 600000 ton PTA unit of Yadong Petrochemical stopped for maintenance at the end of July and restarted around August 10. It was shut down for maintenance again on August 26, and it is planned to restart around September 8

7. Yangzi Petrochemical three sets of 1.3 million tons in total. With the continuous improvement of national requirements for building energy conservation and building fire prevention, PTA devices operate normally

8. A 100000 ton PTA plant in Jinan Zhenghao is currently in continuous shutdown

9. The 325000 ton unit of Luoyang Petrochemical stopped for maintenance on April 24 and was restarted around July 18

10. Liaoyang Petrochemical's two sets of 800000 ton PTA units currently maintain about 80% of the operating load

11. The two sets of 1million ton PTA units of Yizheng Chemical fiber operate normally as a whole

12. At present, the 400000 ton PTA plant of Shanghai Petrochemical is in normal operation

13. Urumqi Petrochemical 100000 ton PTA plant operates normally

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI