PTA wide-ranging oscillation is the main theme
recently, the global financial market has experienced the most violent slump since the 2008 financial crisis. The international crude oil price fell by 24% in just seven trading days, putting a heavy pressure on energy and chemical commodities. Although PTA's own fundamentals are relatively strong, it has not been spared. The largest decline in the five transactions of 1201 contract exceeded 1000 points. All the gains since July have been reversed, and the futures price has returned to the long and short balance position. The near strong and far weak structure of PTA futures contract prices reflects the current pattern of strong supply and demand and pessimistic future expectations. From a macro perspective, the violent turbulence in global financial markets and weak economic growth are also forcing governments to launch a new round of loose monetary stimulus policies. The latest meeting of the Federal Reserve promised to extend the period of low interest rates for the first time, stimulating a rapid rebound in the stock market and commodities. In view of the crisscross of micro and macro long and short factors, the author believes that PTA futures will show a wide-ranging oscillation trend in the range of 8600-9300
the PTA spot is tight due to device failure, and the future supply expectation is short.
since February, the PTA market has shown a unilateral downward trend, mainly due to concerns about the release of supply pressure from PTA's new production capacity in the second half of the year. From the actual performance, the polyester polyester market has improved since the second quarter, coupled with the capacity expansion of the polyester industry, the demand for PTA has actually increased, and there has been no obvious excess pressure on the supply of PTA market. According to the survey, PTA social inventory has been low since July, and the supply of goods in the hands of traders is generally small. Compared with the futures price, the spot price of PTA has significantly resisted the decline. Around August 5, Ningbo Yisheng 3.3 million ton PTA plant was forced to shut down due to power supply interruption, and production may resume at the end of August. After Yisheng Petrochemical announced that the supply of contract goods in August was halved, some polyester factories turned to the spot market for procurement, which led to the spot price rising against the trend when the futures market fell sharply, and the price was firm above 9450 yuan, showing a high rising structure compared with the futures price, indicating that the supply in the PTA spot market has returned to a tight state at present. This year, only one set of equipment in Sanfangxiang has not been put into production, and the fourth quarter is a vacuum period. In the first half of next year, at least 5million tons of new capacity will be intensively released. The 4million tons of PTA devices added this year will also reach full production by the first quarter of next year, and the supply pressure will be truly released. Therefore, the future supply expectation is short, and the far month price discount of futures contracts also reflects this expectation
px market will continue to be stronger than crude oil, with strong support for PTA costs.
since August, international oil prices have fallen as fast as possible from around $100/barrel to below $80/barrel with less plastic bags when buying vegetables quickly, but the PX market is strong supported by strong supply and demand. In early August, the FOB Korean PX price fell from US $1615/ton to US $1513/ton, a decrease of less than 6%, supporting the PTA spot price to remain around 9000 yuan/ton. Last year, when the international oil price was $80/barrel, the spot price of PX in the same period was only $900-1000/ton. In contrast, the PX market is significantly stronger this year. First, PX devices are frequently and unexpectedly shut down, resulting in tight supply. On July 11, the 840000 ton PX unit of CNOOC Huizhou has been shut down since the failure of oil refining equipment. In August, Formosa Plastics PX device and other devices in Asia unexpectedly stopped production. The full recovery of some devices may wait until after October. On August 8, affected by Typhoon "plum blossom", the breakwater near Dalian Fujia Dahua PX project was washed away, and the chemical storage tanks for production were threatened. The Dalian municipal government held a special meeting overnight on the 9th to formally put the relocation of Fujia Dahua PX project on the work agenda. This intensifies the expectation of tight domestic PX supply in the future. Kuwait Petrochemical plans to overhaul 820000 tons of PX units in October for three weeks. The supply of Asian contract customers will be reduced by 30% in August and September, and there will be no supply at all in October. PX supply is expected to be more tight in September. Second, the domestic PTA capacity increased by 3.9 million tons in the third quarter, and the monthly demand for PX increased by 210000 tons. Reduced supply and increased demand pushed up the PX market, which also made the PX price exceptionally resistant to the sharp decline in international oil prices. In the future, the trend of PX market will continue to be stronger than that of crude oil, with strong support for PTA costs
the performance of the chemical fiber market exceeded expectations, giving rise to a strong demand for PTA, but facing growth bottlenecks and downside risks
since this year, the cotton and cotton yarn market has been exceptionally depressed, and small and medium-sized cotton textile enterprises have generally encountered survival pressure. However, the market performance of chemical fiber, which is also an important textile raw material, especially polyester with PTA as raw material, exceeded expectations. After the second quarter, the polyester and polyester Market in the downstream of PTA improved significantly, and the demand increased significantly. The polyester factory has always maintained a low inventory state since the completion of de stocking in May. The spot price of PTA fell below the 10000 yuan mark in late April. Compared with the ordinary construction fiber fire, the price of polyester and polyester products rose instead of falling. The decline in raw material costs and the rise in product prices greatly increased the profit space of downstream chemical fiber enterprises, reversing the loss situation in the first quarter at one fell swoop. The operating rate of polyester filament and staple fiber factories continues to increase. The survey found that many enterprises have used up the reserved capacity. According to CCF statistics, the domestic polyester load rose to 87.4% in early August, reaching the highest level in history, and the demand for PTA rigidity is very strong
the reasons why the chemical fiber Market outperformed expectations after the second quarter of this year are as follows: first, the demand structure and characteristics of terminal textiles and clothing have changed. The roller coaster market of cotton price makes textile enterprises shift from using all cotton fabrics to increasing polyester cotton, polyester viscose, chemical fiber and blended woven fabrics. According to the data, in the first five months of this year, the export volume of China's cotton and chemical fiber clothing, the cotton woven clothing decreased by 4.3%, while the chemical fiber woven clothing increased by 7.0%. As the proportion of cotton used by textile enterprises decreases to ensure the stable operation of closed-loop control, the proportion of blended and chemical fiber products is significantly increased. Structural changes have taken place in China's textile and clothing raw materials, resulting in different market trends of upstream raw materials cotton yarn and chemical fiber. Second, the growth of textile equipment investment drives the increase of chemical fiber demand. The once-in-a-decade domestic textile bull market last year stimulated the textile industry to accelerate fixed asset investment, and the number of new chemical fiber looms and texturing machines added by textile enterprises increased significantly. Water jet looms alone increased by 10 times and warp knitting machines by 52%. From January to may 2011, China's total import of textile machinery was 2.339 billion US dollars, an increase of 56.53% year-on-year. In the first half of this year, the growth rate of downstream textile machinery was still considerable, supporting the growth of textile raw material demand and further digesting the new capacity in the upstream
however, enterprises pursue low-cost advantages in production, and the demand structure will change due to changes in the specific price of cotton and chemical fiber. As the prices of cotton products such as upstream cotton, cotton yarn and cotton cloth fall back to an acceptable level in the end market, the demand for chemical fiber may turn down. In addition, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry has reached the highest level, and the demand for raw material PTA is facing a growth bottleneck when there is no room to improve the production capacity. Since August, the chemical fiber market has also gradually weakened, and the sales volume has continued to fall. Once the factory inventory pressure reappears, the decline in polyester operating rate will directly lead to the reduction of PTA demand
in short, the current PTA fundamentals are very complex. From a macro perspective, the outlook for world economic growth is bleak, and the demand for bulk commodities is facing concerns about the overall decline. Investors are full of expectations for a new round of loose monetary policies by governments of various countries. And policy 3 Any change in iso8644 (2) 006 "motorcycles - light alloy wheels - experimental methods" will cause sharp fluctuations in the commodity futures market. Micro view, although PTA's own fundamental supply and cost factors are positive, there is a risk of demand decline. Under the cross of long and short factors, the PTA market will maintain a wide range of oscillation, which will be the main tone
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